This blog looks at the potential impacts of the El Niño event on Nepal's mountain environment and mountaineering sector. It concludes that El Niño is an opportunity to prepare early, not a reason to halt mountaineering activity.
El Niño is a signal to prepare, not retreat. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued the El Niño Watch, on June 11 2026 the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed it in August 2026, and reinforced it by September, giving operators time to prepare. Nepal has all the ingredients to continue with the build-up and has already proved it this year: Everest saw its best-ever spring 2026 season. This post examines what El Niño may signal and what the industry can respond with.
Nepal's monsoon typically hits around June 13. But it was a slow starter this year, and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) linked the late monsoon to El Niño - the seasonal forecast predicted below normal rain and above normal temperatures. The impact has been mixed: by mid-August the reports had less rain in the Tarai but sufficient in the hills; similar to past years where the effect was weaker in mountain areas. The key point for industry though is that much of such forecasting takes place months in advance, giving operators some headroom for their windows in spring and autumn.
The spring 2026 season in Nepal was a record with 1,008 summits on Everest even though a huge ice block hung over the Khumbu Icefall in April, delaying route-fixing. The icefall doctors and a joint team of climbers and guides took all the time they needed, the route opened on April 29 and the season was held. That's a good blueprint for any unpredictable year: experience, waiting, and openness to smart choices. El Niño hadn't yet taken hold at that point, so that wasn't an issue. Work is even underway on an alternative route over the Nuptse ridge that would skirt the icefall ; another indicator that the industry is planning ahead.
Nepal scored well here. Imja Lake, in the Everest region, was drained by 3.4 metres in 2016, and the adjacent villages were trained in flood prevention. A Rs 5 billion Green Climate Fund grant was approved in 2025 to reduce the risk of four high-risk glacial lakes. In October, Nepal revealed plans to increase flood warnings in six river basins and drain four lakes: Thulagi in Manang, Lower Barun in Sankhuwasabha and Lumding Tsho and Hongu-2 in Solukhumbu.
The watch list is expanding as well. ICIMOD, working with the government, has flagged 47 "highly dangerous" lakes. The 2024 Thame outburst, from a lake not on the high-risk list, showed exactly why more than those 47 lakes need to be monitored. Scientists say there's not enough data to establish a connection between the flood that spilled out 26 August near the Tibet border and El Niño, and what caused it is under investigation. Each spate yields more data points that strengthen the warning system for local villages and trekking paths in the Himalaya.
These suggestions are my own reading of the evidence and of good practice, so check them with local experts.
El Niño raises the odds of certain conditions without any certainty. Nepal's mountaineering community has the experience, early forecasts and a growing national plan to meet them. With flexible planning, trusted route expertise and strong warning systems, the climbing industry can stay safe and keep thriving.
